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Likely death and sickness rates caused by a toxic contaminant release with a resistance to sickness that is age dependent are explored. As many as 10 different sicknesses can be allowed for each released contaminant. Transport of portions of released contaminant by airborne or waterborne methods leads to different contaminant levels and therefore, different death and sickness rates. Gender-specific sicknesses (e.g., prostate cancer or ovarian cancer) can also be included, allowing broad usage of the quantitative procedure described. The influence of uncertainty in parameters relating to either the age dependence model for sickness or death rates, the age distribution model of the population, or the spill and transport of toxic contaminant can easily be handled using a risking program such as Crystal Ball™, in conjunction with the basic death and sickness rate program. Several numerical illustrations show how to assess likely death and sickness rates under these influences.
Ian Lerche is a professor in the Department of Geological Sciences at the University of South Carolina, Columbia. He specializes in physical and economic aspects of gas and oil exploration and has coauthored more than 18 books. He is a recipient of, among others, the Levorsen Award from AAPG, the 1991 Nordic Professor of Petroleum Geology Award, and the 1996–1997 French Academy of Science Professor of Geology Award.Heidi Foth is a professor of toxicology at the University of Halle-Wittenberg. She specializes in contaminant and toxicological problems. She sits on several national and international committees having to do with industrial, academic, and political aspects of contaminant toxicology.